Brief opinion about Ocalan’s message of 27/02/2025
Brief opinion about Ocalan’s message of 27/02/2025
Why did this happen?
This is not the first time Ocalan has called for the PKK to lay down their arms. He first called for one in 1999 when he was arrested. At that time, most people believed Ocalan did it to both let the Turkish state see that the PKK was not a terrorist and also as an attempt to save his life.
The second time was around 2012. People close to Ocalan, thought Ocalan no longer believed in armed struggle and wanted to turn the armed movement into a mass movement, so a unilateral ceasefire process was announced by the PKK.
In 2025, according to social media, Erdogan (Turkish President) and Devlet Bahçeli (chairperson of the far-right, ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party – MHP) have met Ocalan several times, including once where Ocalan was brought to Istanbul from Imrali (where he is in prison). It’s thought, they discussed the Kurdish issue and the PKK, but neither the PKK nor the Turkish government has confirmed this.
The announcement of this most recent disarmament came after visits by delegates from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy party (DEM) to Ocalan and other relevant parties.
Ocalan’s message in late February 2025 is very strange and has been analyzed in many different ways. The analysis covers both sides, the PKK and the Turkish government. The analysts say that the changing situations in the region, after the war between Gaza and Israel, and the subsequent coming to power of the Syrian HTS, the pro Turkish State terrorist group, could have led to Ocalan’s call.
It’s thought that these recent developments in the region could help the Kurds to achieve peace, especially when Israel claims support for Kurdish rights and protection in the area. Another explanation is the weakening of Iran and the strengthening of Turkey’s role in bringing the Syrian HTS to power.
There is also the thought that Turkey wants to become the Sunni center – replacing Saudi Arabia. For this to succeed, Turkey needs some kind of internal reconciliation, which includes an agreement with the Kurds. Turkey feels that Saudi Arabia can no longer be the heart of Sunni society and that neither Egypt nor UAE is strong enough to replace them in this role, and only Turkey can.
Meanwhile, Erdogan wants to become Turkey’s president again at the next elections. For this he needs both support from Kurds inside Turkey and needs to be seen to restore security to Turkey, as the PKK have been inflicting major political, economic and social security blows to Turkey.
The relations between Turkey and Israel are not good at the moment. So, another explanation is that Turkey knows that it may soon have problems because of Israeli invading parts of Syria. Erdogan fears he needs an opportunity to take advantage of the PKK and the Kurds, in order to get closer to Israel.
Then there is the USA. Trump is expected to withdraw from Rojava because of the financial burden this is putting on the US budget. It’s also unclear what Trump will say Turkey in respect of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
My opinion:
All or some of the above may be true, but Ocalan issuing such a message is not about the peace process. The message is very clear. He is asking the PKK for two things: disarmament AND dissolve. In his message he said “all groups must lay their arms and the PKK must dissolve itself”. He suggests that they hold a congress to discuss it, “As in the case with any modern community and party whose existence has not been abolished by force, would voluntarily do, convene your congress and make a decision “.
However, he does not say anything else. For example, whether he would comply with the decision of the congress or not.
What right does he have to ask the PKK to dissolve itself? In my opinion, the essence of Ocalan’s message is surrender, so the PKK in Qundil (Kurdistan) are not satisfied with his message. Ocalan sent his delegation to see some of the political parties leaders, but then didn’t speak with the leaders of the PKK in Qundil. His delegation could have easily met with PKK leaders either in Qundil, or Masood Barzani could have agreed to the PKK leaders secure and safety and invited them to Erbil to meet the delegation. But this was not done, why?
The PKK have now issued a diplomatic statement saying they would commit to ceasefire unless they are attacked. But the statement did not mention disarming and dissolving themselves. Also they are not holding Congress/Conference that Ocalan asked for without having him in the Conference. So this means they won’t hold it as it’s unlikely Ocalan will be released.
If you look at Ocalan’s statement, there are no conditions on the peace process except where he says “I am making a call for the laying down of arms, and I take on the historical responsibility of this call”. How can he do this while he is in a Turkish prison? How can he ask this while he cannot guarantee his own freedom? How can he take that responsibility when he is not allowed to convey his message directly via video?
No one seems to know any terms and conditions of the peace process except Ocalan, Erdogan and Devlet Bahceli. Wwhat are the guarantees of something that does not exist? What are the guarantee when something is not visible? In such circumstances, if he cannot guarantee his own release, how can he guarantee anything of this peace process? It seems like the process is just about surrendering and nothing else?
He calls for democracy for Turkey, but he does not talk about how to build a democratic society. What are the steps and stages of the peace process? How can the peace process be done with a fascist state and a ruling fascist party? What will be the future of the PKK fighters? What will happen with the democratic confederalism that Ocalan has been claiming for years? There is nothing about feminism and gynecology, (Science of women) which is an important thesis of Ocalan, or about the equality of women and men!! Ocalan says nothing about changing the Turkish constitution. How can Kurdish-Turkish brotherhood and reconciliation be achieved if the Turkish constitution is not changed, as it does not take into account the Kurds and calls them mountain Turks? Senior Advisor and Deputy Chairman of the President’s Legal Affairs Committee Mohammed Ucum wrote on the X social network after Ocalan’s appeal: “Anyone who does not comply must bear the consequences.”
With his message, Ocalan justified the democratic Turkish state, which has been a dictatorial and often fascist state since its 100th anniversary. He says “For more than 1000 years, Turkish and Kurdish relations have been defined in terms of cooperation and alliance”
He believes that Erdogan and Devlet Bahceli have initiated reconciliation, but they are not even ready to release Ocalan, Demirtas and other PKK prisoners who have been imprisoned for decades.
Ocalan’s message speaks of the dissolution of the PKK. Many questions arise from this. Firstly, if the PKK dissolves itself, it will have no role in the peace process that Ocalan is calling for. Ocalan is saying this consciously so he can be dominant as the Kurdish representative, not just the PKK representative, in the process. What is the PKK’s response? Will they expel Ocalan and remain under the name of the PKK or will they hold a congress and choose another name for themselves?
Secondly, since Ocalan has not offered the PKK any conditions for a ceasefire or how to dissolve itself, where should all these fighters go? What does the congress mean by Ocalan’s order or proposal?
Third, while no one knows any terms and conditions of the peace process except himself, Erdogan and Bakceli, what does the historical guarantee for succeeding the process as I mentioned above mean?
Ocalan’s solution is “The inevitable outcome of the extreme nationalist deviations – such as a separate nation-state, federation, administrative autonomy, or culturalist solutions – fails to answer the historical sociology of the society. Respect for identities, free self-expression, and democratic self-organization of each segment of society based on their own socio-economic and political structures, are only possible through the existence of a democratic society and political space.”
Conclusion
I am against any armed movement, especially the PKK, which has distorted Bookchin’s thoughts and idea. It caused tens of thousands of people to be killed, destroyed three parts of Kurdistan, led to many of the HDP (old name of DEMP) leaders and activists being imprisoned, and had a terrible impact on Rojava.
Since 2015, after the resumption of the war between the PKK and Turkey, I have written dozens of articles about it and made hundreds of posts on Facebook.
I have always been in favor of a ceasefire and disarmament to transform the armed movement into a mass movement. But this time the PKK’s disarming is at the request of Erdogan and Ocalan without any obvious steps towards a lasting peace process, and this could be surrender and/or disaster to the PKK, the Kurds of Turkey and Rojava as well.
Ocalan’s message could divide the PKK into two parts. Some will agree with Ocalan as the PKK has been working to make Ocalan a sacred man for the last 40 years and raised him to sky and now it is impossible be bring him down. The other part remains against him and his decision.
Last night, one of the PKK leaders, Murat Kareylan, said that they will not lay down their arms until Ocalan is released and the peace process begins. He’s right.
The above was my opinion on what happened yesterday, but what will happening in the future, then I will undoubtedly have a different opinion on these events.
Zaher Baher
28/02/2025